CRE Still Not Out of Trouble

Posted by admin on July 12, 2010 under Uncategorized | Be the First to Comment

While commercial real estate values have not rebounded in the first six months of the year, the fear that 2010 was a disaster waiting to happen has subsided as liquidity has started flowing back into the market, according to new reports out this past week from PIMCO and PricewaterhouseCoopers.

The pair of reports suggest that, for institutional quality property at least, property values have found a bottom and cap rates have peaked and could even start to subside. Neither of the reports is projecting a worry-free environment, however, in fact both are projecting a long, long road to full recovery.

“While most investors sense that the worst is over in terms of market deterioration, supply greatly outweighs demand across all property sectors keeping overall vacancy rates high and rental rates on a downward trend,” said Susan Smith, director, real estate advisory practice, PricewaterhouseCoopers. “Top-tier locations are showing the most signs of life with respect to tenant interest and recovery potential. However, inspiring leasing trends have yet to fully materialize, further contributing to this sense of market flux.”
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Economist’s Predictions about Florida Real Estate Market

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There’s no question this is a summer of economic discontent.

Florida’s double-digit unemployment is expected to creep higher again as part-time U.S. Census jobs dry up. Realtors and retailers alike anticipate a pull-back in spending from the first half of the year. And then there’s the daily havoc on tourism, fishing and other industries wrought by the still-uncontrolled massive oil leak in the gulf.

But where are we exactly in terms of the economy?

Is it an extremely tepid and jerky recovery? A double-dip recession? Or, as economist Paul Krugman warned, possibly the early stages of the country’s third big depression, following the Long Depression of the 1870s and Great Depression of the 1930s?

A trio of economists who closely track Florida took the less draconian view. They formed somewhat of a consensus that growth has slowed much more than expected, but the feared double dip — or worse — is still unlikely.

Here’s how they see the rest of the year unfolding. Read more of this article »